Coronavirus

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jolly joker
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:49 pm

Am calculat nr teoretic optim de teste folosind gradient descent si 85 data points (1 apr - 25 iunie). Nr de data points este f mic.
Nr optim de teste astfel calculat este de 12345.1438
Last edited by jolly joker on Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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primarita
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby primarita » Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:54 pm

Inca nu am primit stimulentul.
Eu ma intreb de ce avem putine cazuri in Romania?!
Eu cred ca de la netestare.

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jolly joker
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:57 pm

primarita wrote:Inca nu am primit stimulentul.
Eu ma intreb de ce avem putine cazuri in Romania?!
Eu cred ca de la netestare.


12345 teste pe zi se cam fac. Verific acum.
Eu folosesc formatul american, "." = virgula si "," = punct. La fel ptr date calendaristice, luna inaintea zilei.

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jolly joker
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:03 pm

Da, sub 10 mii pe zi in medie. Aici ai dreptate. Se fac mai putine decat am avut impresia.

teste 14 zile.jpg
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Last edited by jolly joker on Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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primarita
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby primarita » Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:04 pm

E putin. Au zis ca au facut in jur de 4000 si ceva.
Dragut graficul.

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jolly joker
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:10 pm

Sub optimal

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jolly joker
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:24 pm

primarita wrote:E putin. Au zis ca au facut in jur de 4000 si ceva.
Dragut graficul.


Mersi

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jolly joker
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:27 pm

Un slope mai mic nu se poate calcula cu cele 85 data points prin micsorarea step size ului.
jupyter screen.jpg
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primarita
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby primarita » Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:23 pm

Eu iti multumesc.
Nu prea ma pricep eu la statistica, dar ma uit pe ele.

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Melania
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Melania » Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:43 pm

Nu vedem padurea de copaci. E un nou val. Cine face un prognostic cu privire la numarul de morti de covid pana la sf anului in romania?

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby primarita » Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:25 pm

Nasol. Anul acesta nu ies din tara :(
Sper sa nu fie ca gripa spaniola.

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jolly joker
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:47 pm

Melania wrote:Nu vedem padurea de copaci. E un nou val. Cine face un prognostic cu privire la numarul de morti de covid pana la sf anului in romania?


Nu stiu daca sunt necesare estimarile.
Si e posibil sa am niste greseli in ecuatii. Maine verific.

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jolly joker
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:13 pm

algoritm min teste ptr min de cazuri.jpg


erau 2-3 greseli in ecuatii. acum cauta iar nr minim de teste ptr un nr minim de cazuri.
mai lucrati si voi.
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jolly joker
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:29 pm

Le-am incurcat.
Nr
optim de teste
nu e nr optim.

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby alimori » Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:34 pm

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.21.20132449v1
Intrafamilial Exposure to SARS-CoV-2 Induces Cellular Immune Response without Seroconversion.
E un preprint.

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Melania
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Melania » Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:39 pm

Interesant.:)

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MumaPadurii
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby MumaPadurii » Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:46 pm

alimori wrote:https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.21.20132449v1
Intrafamilial Exposure to SARS-CoV-2 Induces Cellular Immune Response without Seroconversion.
E un preprint.

:multi:
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby MumaPadurii » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:54 am

Muma the Puma

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jomil » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:59 am

Daca nu putem lua virusi de la cartofi si orez mai avem o sansa.
A friend told me i was delusional. I almost fell off my unicorn.

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jolly joker
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:18 pm

Trebuie intervent gradual acum.
Monitorizare atenta a aplicarii regulilor si apoi trecut la amenzi, ptr restabilirea controlului.
In paralel trebuie explicat motivele de catre specialisti.

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jolly joker
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:36 pm

jolly joker wrote:Un slope mai mic nu se poate calcula cu cele 85 data points prin micsorarea step size ului.
jupyter screen.jpg


Ignorați nr optim teste. Acel nr este eroarea totala a cost/loss function.

Nu sunt sigur de slope și intercept ptr este în 2-3 ecuații o scădere între f(x)-x, care cred eu, ar trebui sa fie f(x) - y. Am cerut lămuriri autorului azi dimineață (i-am scris sa detalieze pașii).

Avand in vedere cantitatea de outlieri ar fi mai potrivita o Huber Loss function. Incerc ceva automat, fara ecuatii si pasi.

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jolly joker
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:18 pm

1 apr. - 28 iun.
cazuri.jpg

teste.jpg

linear reg.jpg
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Melania
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Melania » Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:42 pm

Pe Remdesivir l-au botezat Vekluri si l-au aprobat si in UE.
https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/documents/ ... ion_en.pdf

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby pc7 » Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:10 pm

Cica l au cumparat americanii pe tot...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53254487
"mania grandorii daca n-o ai, la medicina ce cauta n-ai " vlad s.
"latra-ti dusmanii, ca se zapacesc la cap" muma p

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Melania
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Melania » Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:53 am

jolly joker wrote:
jolly joker wrote:Un slope mai mic nu se poate calcula cu cele 85 data points prin micsorarea step size ului.
jupyter screen.jpg


Ignorați nr optim teste. Acel nr este eroarea totala a cost/loss function.

Nu sunt sigur de slope și intercept ptr este în 2-3 ecuații o scădere între f(x)-x, care cred eu, ar trebui sa fie f(x) - y. Am cerut lămuriri autorului azi dimineață (i-am scris sa detalieze pașii).

Avand in vedere cantitatea de outlieri ar fi mai potrivita o Huber Loss function. Incerc ceva automat, fara ecuatii si pasi.


Nu te mai chinui, te ajut eu:
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jolly joker
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:59 am

Cu toate resursele americanilor lucrurile au evoluat ff om sarman, de extractie umila, mai putin dotat intelectual la ei, ceea ce inseamna ca deciziile au fost luat om sarman, de extractie umila, mai putin dotat intelectual, indiferent de informatiile primite.


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Re: Coronavirus

Postby dustweaver » Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:27 am

Cred ca-s cu capu', saracii. Purtatul mastii e problema politica (nicaieri altundeva nu stiu sa fie). Sper sa tinem granita cu ei inchisa.
(Nu ca i-ar opri pe ei, minunati cum sunt, o amarata de granita - cica oricum vin sa se plimbe pe la noi sub pretext ca se duc in Alaska. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british- ... -1.5634397)
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby MumaPadurii » Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:38 am

Și-n România au transformat purtatul măștii și carantina în problema politica.
E adevărat ca nu la nivelul la care o fac în US...
Muma the Puma

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby M_Dan » Sat Jul 04, 2020 7:06 pm

Cititi cu mare atentie ce scrie aici:
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/493732-big-pha ... mic-covid/

Si nu va mai dati cu parerea, ca sunteti habarnisti. Nu v-au invatat in facultate ce trebuia.

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby alimori » Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:54 pm

Te sfatuiesc sa cauti forumuri de ingineri. Aici ne dam cu parerea noi.

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby dustweaver » Sun Jul 05, 2020 12:02 am

Chiar ma intrebam de ce nu mai venise M. Dan Shyamalanov sa ne predice/insulte de la o vreme.

Banuiesc ca stie deja ca "RT is an autonomous, non-profit organization that is publicly financed from the budget of the Russian Federation. For more information, contact: press@rttv.ru." Nu pun la indoiala ca este autonoma, statul ii da doar 200-300 de milioane de dolari pe an si sigur n-are niciun interes in afara raportarii realitatii asa cum este.
Pe-aici umbla şi el şi se-ntorcea mereu
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Melania » Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:04 am

Deci OMS a aflat practic de pe net de epidemia de pneumonii din Wuhan si nu a fost informata oficial de China asa cum au mintit inca de la inceput.
Acum incearca sa stearga urmele minciunilor:
https://m.hotnews.ro/stire/24153757

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Sun Jul 05, 2020 9:25 am

Asteptam decretarea starii de urgenta.

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jolly joker
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Sun Jul 05, 2020 9:47 am

cazuri noi 14 zile.jpg

teste 14 zile.jpg

cazuri functie de teste.jpg
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jolly joker
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:08 am

edit

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jolly joker
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:57 am

Folosind globul de cristal, nr de cazuri de cazuri noi va incepe sa scada. Nr de teste va continua sa creasca.

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jolly joker
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Sun Jul 05, 2020 12:17 pm

8)

cazuri noi 14 zile+scadere.jpg
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jolly joker
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Sun Jul 05, 2020 1:22 pm

Media zilnica de cazuri noi 1 iunie - 5 iulie = 273

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby dustweaver » Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:40 pm

Ce surpriza ca mancati ovaz, domnule cal: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/heal ... borne.html
Pe-aici umbla şi el şi se-ntorcea mereu
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby M_Dan » Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:13 am

Ciuliti urechile, ducumentati-va, puneti-va creierasul in functiune, ganditi cu mintea voastra, nu reproduceti ca papagalii.
Simt o mare dezamagire de cand cu pandemia asta. Credeam ca medicii din alte tari sunt mai destepti si mai pregatiti decat ai nostri, dar sunt toti o apa si-un pamant (de flori).


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